Can a fractured GOP be made whole by McCain’s running mate?
Posted by: onemom on: April 4, 2008
There is much discussion and bickering about who John McCain should choose as his running mate. One faction says they will vote for McCain but not if he selects Mitt Romney. Another faction says they will vote for McCain only if he selects Mike Huckabee. Another faction says they will only vote for Mike Huckabee for President and will write him in.
All these factions (or should I call them “fractures”) certainly show that the GOP is a mess. Hopefully, as when a fractured bone heals, this brokenness will ultimately make us stronger – whether that can happen in 2008, I do not know. Of course we had a candidate that would have brought the GOP and the entire country together, but conservative leaders chose to split their support behind money and power candidates instead of Mike Huckabee who truly represented us.
What I do know is that John McCain is going to have a very difficult time winning in November. The country’s mood is very bad – the war, the economy – a grumpy country wants change, and I don’t believe they are finding anything about John McCain that represents change (I myself am very disappointed that McCain is the nominee. I could have supported Huckabee (obviously), Romney, Thompson, or even Paul, but at the bottom of my list was Giuliani followed closely by McCain). Democrats are going to the polls in record numbers, and where John McCain has won (either whole states or within a state), it has typically been in places that are most likely to go for the Democratic candidate in the general election.
Regarding McCain’s running mate, I am not joining those calling for him to select Mike Huckabee, because I don’t believe that McCain can win in November, and historically, being on a losing ticket is a death knell for future political aspirations.
I did a quick look at the losing tickets since the early 1900’s.
- 1920 – James Cox/Franklin Roosevelt (D).
- 1924 – John Davis/Charles Bryan (D).
- 1928 – Al Smith/Joseph Robinson (D).
- 1932 – Herbert Hoover/Charles Curtis (R).
- 1936 – Alfred Landon/Frank Knox (R).
- 1940 – Wendell Wilkie/Charles McNary (R).
- 1944 – Tom Dewey/John Bricker (R).
- 1948 – Tom Dewey/Earl Warren (R).
- 1952 – Adlai Stevenson/John Sparkman (D).
- 1956 – Adlai Stevenson/Estes Kefauver (D).
- 1960 – Richard Nixon/Henry Cabot Lodge (R).
- 1964 – Barry Goldwater/William Miller (R).
- 1968 – Hubert Humphrey/Edmund Muskie (D).
- 1972 – George McGovern/Sargent Shriver (D).
- 1976 – Gerald Ford/Bob Dole (R).
- 1980 – Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale (D).
- 1984 – Walter Mondale/Geraldine Ferraro (D).
- 1988 – Michael Dukakis/Lloyd Bentsen (D).
- 1992 – George H.W. Bush/Dan Quayle (R).
- 1996 – Bob Dole/Jack Kemp (R).
- 2000 – Al Gore/Joe Lieberman (D).
- 2004 – John Kerry/John Edwards (D).
Only one losing VP nominee, Franklin Roosevelt, later went on to win the general election. Only one losing Presidential nominee, Richard Nixon, later went on to win the general election. Two other losing VP nominees went on to win the nominations (Mondale and Dole). Nixon isn’t a pure example here because he won the Vice-Presidency under Eisenhower.
My point is, I think McCain is going to lose in November (please don’t hound me with today’s poll numbers … you have to look at the big picture: numbers of democrats voting; where McCain has won and where he has lost; and money). I don’t want Mike Huckabee saddled with that “losing ticket” baggage in 2012.
My opinion.
Kerry
17 Responses to "Can a fractured GOP be made whole by McCain’s running mate?"
April 4, 2008 at 10:09 am
My question for you, Kerry, is would you vote for a McCain/Huckabee ticket if it were to happen? (Though I find that unlikely.)
April 4, 2008 at 10:21 am
Frances – well, that’s one way to look at it I guess.
Ronnica – that’s a tough one. I’ve never voted for a ticket because of the Vice-Presidential candidate alone, but I’ve never met a politician like Mike Huckabee before. I honestly can’t answer you right now, as I am having a difficult time with McCain.
April 4, 2008 at 12:27 pm
I’m about where you are. I’m not worrying yet about whether or not to vote McCain. There’s too much wishy-washy stuff (like the VP candidate and who will be the Democratic candidate) to decide now.
April 4, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Cindy – that’s an interesting thought. I wonder what that would mean for the GOP? Would there be a free for all at the convention between Huckabee and Romney?
April 4, 2008 at 4:56 pm
The only salvation I have for John McCain is that I feel he would do our country less harm than either Obama or Hillary. Other than that, I simply do not care for him. I do not believe he can be trusted.
April 4, 2008 at 5:26 pm
I think it would be a liability for McCain to have someone that gives a speech as well as Regan. I remember watching the Cheney/Leiberman debate and thinking those two should be the ones running for president – not Bush/Gore. When Huckabee shines (and he will), McCain will look bad.
Only two reasons I can think of to vote for McCain – 1. more pro-life than Obama/Clinton (hard not to be) and 2. I can’t stand the thought of our soldiers having to salute Obama/Clinton.
April 5, 2008 at 12:49 am
Great post,
To help prove your point about the numbers, I ran it taking into account that the DNC will unite behind the anti-war message…
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April 5, 2008 at 3:41 am
I would vote for McCain-Huckabee with bells on.
I supported Mike Huckabee for over a year and Blogged for Huckabee for nearly a year.
First of all, it is manifestly clear and has been for a long time that McCain is philosophically ambiguous, certainly to some extent inherently and perhaps to some extent intentionally. So for one thing, he is prone to let sentiment drive him to logical inconsistency. And in the second place, it may be the case that certain ambiguity has served him quite well politically, in his estimation.
A relatively undefined “middle” may be exactly how he wants to be perceived. As Christians we know that, as Jesus told us, we will be scorned and hated. Notice that McCain avoids details of all aspects of his personal life, including the service in the Middle East of his sons, his adopted Asian daughter, and the fact that he has in recent years attended a Baptist church when in Arizona. Can we doubt that publication of details would, in addition to inspiring some people, turn away others?
I think McCain has conducted himself this year in a reasonably gracious manner. And, I think it is vital that he and not a Democrat be elected this year. And, I am one who has in the past voted for a conservative third party and in principle have no problem with doing so.
But as things stand TODAY, some matters on which McCain is extraordinarily strong or reasonably strong, are no longer just noble objectives. They present crucial matters for our nation’s future:
1) We may hope that at his stage of maturity he may be very sober about nominating constructionist judges and his choices certainly will be infinitely more so than Barack Obama’s OR Hillary’s. At stake is a substantial component of the federal judiciary for the next 25 years, including 2, 3, or 4 Supreme Court justices. How does 50 years of “precedence” for Roe v. Wade sound to you.
2) More obviously, McCain will be more straightforward, stalwart, and vigorous in defending American security and interests in foreign policy, and basic humanity internationally.
3) There has been a tsunami of entitlement liability closing on America for decades. Tax hikes, benefit cuts, and monetary inflation will not save us from the shortfall that will slam our nation’s economy. For years we have talked about the need for reform. But, today we are perched under the curl of the wave that will slam down on our system. This year, baby-baby-boomers are beginning to retire. Within a decade, America will be financially drowning.
By the way, George W. Bush only added to the problem in a BIG way. I never voted for Bush. I appreciate his resolve in Iraq in the face of strong pop-cultural headwinds. But when Bush was elected, I said, “Leviathan gets a night manager,” which proved entirely accurate. Not only did he not veto a bill for six years, he introduced, pushed, and signed a huge expansion of the federal education department and much worse, the largest entitlement expansion since the days of Lyndon Johnson, with Medicare prescription drug coverage.
By the way, McCain opposed and voted against that action. Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma is the closest thing that you will find to a “Dr. No” on federal spending in the US Senate. As I have, Coburn has often disagreed with John McCain. But, Coburn came out forcefully for McCain, because he knows both McCain’s resolve to restrain federal spending and the precarious position in which we stand, today.
Frankly, Huckabee did not emphasize enough that The Fair Tax is not just a great idea, but perhaps the only way we will dramatically grow economic activity and revenue to soften the blow of the entitlement crunch.
Especially given his mature and gracious disposition of late, we social conservatives need to befriend and support McCain, and work to get him elected and surrounded with more coherent philosophical thinkers. We need the energy of social conservatives and we need to encourage McCain, not repel him. I pray and believe that we can win his favor. We ought to graciously make the effort as emissaries of Christ and besides, you catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. 
April 5, 2008 at 8:01 am
Larry – if I have to coddle McCain and bake him cookies to get him to be nice to us (social conservatives), then no thanks.
April 6, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Dear Mrs. Kerry and readers,
Since I will be voting for the first time this year I should be excited. I do not like John McCain. I always have seen him as the anti religious right republican. This election opened my eyes how these so-called conservatives that claim principals, integrity, and faith in God is what we our about. Then I watched them back Romney, Thompson and Giuliani. Since my political future is soon to come I’m glad I know they have no integrity, principals or faith in God just an agenda. I’m also glad we social conservatives now realize what leaders of our movement truly believe in a God fearing nation and those who just use the title to feel important.
I myself hope McCain does not pick Huckabee. In my opinion McCain is going to loose. Since he is going to loose I kind of want him to pick Romney, but if McCain picks Romney I will not vote for him. I am kind of stuck on whom to vote for. I can tell from the Bible belt that if McCain picks Romney he is doomed. Look at February 5th results. Huckabee with no money won the Deep South. He also placed a very close second in Missouri and Oklahoma, which are debated among us if they are truly southern. Romney finished third in all of these states. Sean Hannity and Fox news forget why the South is the base of Republicanism. We don’t put a high price on the economic issues or illegal immigration or the Iraq war. Its about Guns, Gays and Abortion. The South is nothing more than Evangelicals going to vote because it is our duty as Christians. Almost every Republican I talk to will not vote for McCain down here if he picks Romney. I myself am quit surprised by this. If he picks Romney the Christians down here will not turn out to vote giving the blacks authority over our electoral college.
Typical southerners do not trust him (Romney). He is Mormon. We have been raised since birth that they are a powerful (even demonic) cult. Alabama song the “Down Home” and in this song they say, “A man’s good word and a hand shake are all you need”. Romney cannot be trusted. He is a man with a forked tongue. He also bashed the confederate flag. If you noticed at that CNN debate how no one clapped after he answered. He said we as Americans chose not to fly that flag. No Romney, we lost the war, and that is why it’s not flown. We didn’t vote on the whether we wont the flag to be flown. His ignorance to History in that response hurt him. If McCain does pick Romney it will be the first time in a long time that the Republicans haven’t had a southerner on the ballot.
So here is to McCain-Romney 08. I’m excited to see how the south will treat you. See how we Evangelicals across America will treat you. We won’t give you our Hospitality. We wont turn that other check. And we definitely wont give you our vote. We will give you Second place this November. And we will be happy to give Fox news and Sean Hannity crow for Dinner. Not till they give us Huckabee will the South and Christians will be satisfied.
May God bless Huckabee and you Mrs. Kerry.
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August 7, 2008 at 1:11 pm
The thing that pushed me to do all I could to promote Mike for VP was HIS desire to be VP.
I personally know from talking to Janet Huckabee that he did want the job. I want what Mike wants, and I trust him to know what is best for him. I don’t know if that has changed since spring, but at that time, he did not discourage us from doing all we could to promote him as much as possible.
We do know that Mike will be at the RNC with his band, and I think he may be the keynote speaker or if not VP, has been given a prominent role in the convention and GOP.
Even with all the historial “evidence” against VPs being successful in future ambitions, I trust Mike to know what direction he needs to take, and will follow his lead. It may seem now that McCain is a losing ticket, but not only do we not know for sure that McCain won’t win, we also don’t know if McCain may still choose Mike, and Ed Rollins was just providing fodder for the media, or to energize us as Mike’s followers to move forward. I believe everything Ed Rollins says is a strategy to help Mike ultimately.
Debra
Hucks Army Moderator
Michigan Meetup Organizer
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April 4, 2008 at 9:25 am
I totally hope that McCain chooses Romney and that will get rid of both of them for 2012.